8731.0 - Building Approvals, Australia, May 2004

ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 02/07/2004

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Main Features
About this Release
Focus on the Queensland Construction Industry (Feature Article)

MAY KEY FIGURES

		May 04	Apr 04 to May 04	May 03 to May 04
		no.	% change	% change
Trend

Dwelling units approved
	Private sector houses	9,401	-0.6	-3.6
	Total dwelling units	14,504	0.5	-0.1
Seasonally Adjusted

Dwelling units approved
	Private sector houses	9,304	-3.5	-3.0
	Total dwelling units	14,683	1.5	3.4

Dwelling units approved, Total number
Graph: Number of dwelling units approved

Private sector houses approved, Total number
Graph: Private sector houses approved

MAY KEY POINTS

TREND ESTIMATES

The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved is now showing increases over the last two months, rising 0.5% in May 2004.
The trend estimate for private sector houses approved fell 0.6% in May 2004, the eighth consecutive monthly fall.
The trend estimate for other dwellings approved rose 2.8% in May 2004. The trend is now showing rises for the last four months.

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES

The seasonally adjusted estimate for total dwelling units approved rose 1.5%, to 14,683, in May 2004.
The seasonally adjusted estimate for private sector houses approved fell 3.5%, to 9,304, in May 2004, following a fall of 0.5% in April.
The seasonally adjusted estimate for other dwellings approved rose 10.5%, to 5,209, in May 2004, following a 5.9% rise in April.
The seasonally adjusted estimate of the value of total building approved rose 1.1%, to $4,374.4 million, in May 2004. This is the third consecutive monthly rise. New residential building rose 3.2%, to $2,754.9 million. Residential alterations and additions fell 7.2%, to $390.8 million, following a rise of 7.9% in April.

NOTES

CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

There are no changes in this issue. Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates will be revised next issue as a result of the annual reanalysis of seasonal factors. This reanalysis will include some changes to the method of aggregation used for seasonal adjustment. One outcome of the reanalysis is that the value of Non-residential building time series have been assessed to be non-seasonal and are therefore, not suitable for release (Tables 13, 14 and 24, and corresponding Time Series spreadsheets). The value of Non-residential building in original and trend terms will continue to be published. For further details of these changes, please contact timeseries@abs.gov.au or telephone (02) 6252 6345.

REVISIONS THIS MONTH

Revisions have been made to total dwelling units in this issue:

2003-04
New South Wales	270
Victoria	21
Queensland	2
South Australia	-1
Western Australia	12
Tasmania	-
Northern Territory	-
Australian Capital Territory	-
TOTAL	304

— nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)

DATA NOTES

Estimates have been included in this issue for four councils unable to report all building work approved in their municipalities this month (Hornsby and Lake Macquarie in New South Wales, Noosa in Queensland, and Burnside in South Australia).

A new article ‘Focus on the Queensland Construction Industry’ is available from the ABS website.

INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Andrea Woods on Adelaide (08) 8237 7350.

SUMMARY COMMENTARY

VALUE OF BUILDING APPROVED

NEW RESIDENTIAL BUILDING

The trend estimate of the value of new residential building has risen steadily over the last six months, rising 1.8% in May 2004.

ALTERATIONS AND ADDITIONS TO RESIDENTIAL BUILDING

The trend estimate of the value of alterations and additions to residential building has fallen for the last seven months, with the rate of decline slowing over recent months. The trend fell 0.7% in May 2004.

Graph: Alterations and additions to residential buildings

NON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDING

The trend estimate of the value of non-residential building rose by 1.2% in May 2004, following falls in the previous nine months.

DWELLINGS APPROVED

TOTAL DWELLING UNITS

The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved is now showing increases over the last two months, following six months of decline. The trend rose 0.5% in May 2004.

PRIVATE SECTOR HOUSES

The trend estimate for private sector houses approved has fallen for the last eight months, following eight months of growth. The trend fell 0.6% in May 2004.

OTHER DWELLINGS

The trend estimate for other dwellings approved is now showing rises for the last four months, following four months of decline. The trend rose 2.8% in May 2004.

DWELLING UNITS APPROVED - STATES AND TERRITORIES

SUMMARY COMMENTS

The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved rose 0.5% in May 2004. The Australian Capital Territory (+7.1%), the Northern Territory (+4.4%) and Tasmania (+3.5%) showed the strongest growth. The trend fell in Queensland (-2.9%), South Australia (-0.2%) and Western Australia (-0.1%).

The trend estimate for private sector houses approved fell 0.6% in May 2004. The trend fell in Queensland (-3.7%) and South Australia (-0.5%), but rose in Western Australia (+0.9%). The trend was flat in New South Wales and Victoria.

		NSW	Vic.	Qld	SA	WA	Tas.	NT	ACT	Aust.
Original

Dwelling units approved
	Private sector houses (no.)	1,939	2,759	2,147	659	1,682	225	28	110	9,549
	Total dwelling units (no.)	3,916	4,016	3,029	885	2,165	307	133	734	15,185
Percentage change from previous month
	Private sector houses (%)	10.1	1.1	2.9	5.1	29.3	-14.4	7.7	26.4	7.5
	Total dwelling units (%)	8.0	5.3	-8.0	10.9	36.3	5.5	44.6	202.1	10.5
Seasonally Adjusted

Dwelling units approved
	Private sector houses (no.)	1,835	2,740	2,085	660	1,624	na	na	na	9,304
	Total dwelling units (no.)	3,668	4,053	3,107	890	1,967	290	na	na	14,683
Percentage change from previous month
	Private sector houses (%)	-4.6	0.2	-9.0	-4.8	3.6	na	na	na	-3.5
	Total dwelling units (%)	-8.3	10.2	-8.6	-	11.7	-16.5	na	na	1.5
Trend

Dwelling units approved
	Private sector houses (no.)	1,863	2,701	2,183	668	1,600	na	na	na	9,401
	Total dwelling units (no.)	3,841	3,801	3,249	869	1,935	301	104	259	14,504
Percentage change from previous month
	Private sector houses (%)	0.1	-	-3.7	-0.5	0.9	na	na	na	-0.6
	Total dwelling units (%)	0.1	1.3	-2.9	-0.2	-0.1	3.5	4.4	7.1	0.5

- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
na not available

DWELLING UNITS APPROVED

STATE TRENDS

NEW SOUTH WALES

The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved in New South Wales has risen for the last four months, with the rate of growth slowing in May 2004. The trend for private sector houses has been flat for the last four months.

VICTORIA

The trend estimates for total dwelling units approved in Victoria is now showing rises over the last three months, following six months of decline. The trend for private sector houses was flat in May 2004, after falling for the previous eight months.

QUEENSLAND

The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved in Queensland has fallen for the last eight months, following six months of growth. The trend for private sector houses has fallen for the for the last six months.

SOUTH AUSTRALIA

The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved in South Australia has fallen for the last eight months, with the rate of decline slowing over the last three months. The trend for private sector houses has fallen for the last eight months.

WESTERN AUSTRALIA

The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved in Western Australia has fallen for the last six months, following six months of growth. The trend for private sector houses rose in May 2004, following five months of decline.

WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES

EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES

TREND REVISIONS

Recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent months become available. The approximate effect of possible scenarios on trend estimates are presented below. Generally, the greater the volatility of the original series, the larger the size of the revisions to trend estimates. Analysis of the building approval original series has shown that they can be revised substantially. As a result, some months can elapse before turning points in the trend series are reliably identified.

The graphs and tables which follow present the effect of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimates: that the June seasonally adjusted estimate is higher than the May estimate by 4% for the number of private sector houses approved and 13% for other dwelling units approved; and that the June seasonally adjusted estimate is lower than the May estimate by 4% for the number of private sector houses approved and 13% for other dwelling units approved. These percentages represent the average absolute monthly percentage change for these series over the last ten years.

PRIVATE SECTOR HOUSES APPROVED

				WHAT IF NEXT MONTH‘S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE:
		TREND AS PUBLISHED		(1) rises by 4% on May 2004		(2) falls by 4% on May 2004
		no.	% change	no.	% change	no.	% change

2004
	January	9,791	-1.6	9,781	-1.6	9,804	-1.5
	February	9,650	-1.4	9,644	-1.4	9,656	-1.5
	March	9,542	-1.1	9,559	-0.9	9,529	-1.3
	April	9,461	-0.8	9,513	-0.5	9,414	-1.2
	May	9,401	-0.6	9,488	-0.3	9,301	-1.2
	June	-	-	9,486	-	9,204	-1.0

- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)

OTHER DWELLINGS

				WHAT IF NEXT MONTH‘S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE:
		TREND AS PUBLISHED		(1) rises by 13% on May 2004		(2) falls by 13% on May 2004
		no.	% change	no.	% change	no.	% change

2004
	January	4,600	-1.7	4,582	-2.2	4,628	-1.7
	February	4,627	0.6	4,622	0.9	4,645	0.4
	March	4,722	2.1	4,786	3.5	4,726	1.7
	April	4,837	2.4	4,990	4.3	4,789	1.3
	May	4,974	2.8	5,206	4.3	4,828	0.8
	June	-	-	5,397	3.7	4,827	-

- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)